Note that a VACUUM wouldn't be able to remove the dead rows if there's a long running active query OR any idle transaction in an isolation >= Repeatable Read, tracking transactions in "pg_stat_activity" should help you eliminate/track this activity. Also, the row estimates consider the size of your table, so it isn't necessary that close estimates indicate an ANALYZE operation performed, a better way to track this would be monitoring results from "pg_stat_user_tables", tracking when was did the autovacuum/analyze last performed on this table
Regards,
Akash